V-Lab
Sirio Pharma Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
362.69
decreased by 8.60
1 Week
364.47
decreased by 6.82
1 Month
333.98
decreased by 37.31
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2019 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7979 | 7.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.2254 | 7.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6650 | 18.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0564 | -3.33*** |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7979 | 7.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2254 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6650 | 18.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0564 | -3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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