V-Lab
Sirio Pharma Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
492.76
decreased by 211.56
1 Week
659.31
decreased by 45.01
1 Month
488.61
decreased by 215.71
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7476 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2230 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6565 | 17.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0636 | -3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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