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Sirio Pharma Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

362.69

decreased by 8.60

1 Week

364.47

decreased by 6.82

1 Month

333.98

decreased by 37.31

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sirio Pharma Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 25, 2019 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7979
7.91***
αARCH0.2254
7.49***
βGARCH0.6650
18.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0564
-3.33***

0.890

Persistence

6d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7979
7.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2254
7.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6650
18.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0564
-3.33***

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days