Sirio Pharma Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
299.26
increased by 31.67
1 Week
322.75
increased by 55.16
1 Month
367.38
increased by 99.79
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8031 | 7.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.2251 | 7.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6674 | 18.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0559 | -3.29*** |
0.892
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8031 | 7.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2251 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6674 | 18.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0559 | -3.29*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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