Tsi Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
161.67
decreased by 22.49
1 Week
163.97
decreased by 20.19
1 Month
154.62
decreased by 29.54
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2017 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5456 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1952 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8048 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 12.6346 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -49.2554 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 69.7435 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -44.8522 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 14.6756 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.4086 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -5.8461 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 2.7387 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 2.8825 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -2.6569 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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