V-Lab
Tsi Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
184.31
decreased by 35.12
1 Week
185.19
decreased by 34.24
1 Month
293.17
increased by 73.74
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5368 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1957 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8043 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 12.5778 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -50.4450 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 68.8339 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -39.0910 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 11.6591 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -1.2157 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -2.5496 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -3.0418 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 4.0197 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | 0.5333 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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