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V-Lab

Tsi Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

184.31

decreased by 35.12

1 Week

185.19

decreased by 34.24

1 Month

293.17

increased by 73.74

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Tsi Co., Ltd. ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 30, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5368
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1957
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8043
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ112.5778
0.00
γ2-50.4450
0.00
γ368.8339
0.00
γ4-39.0910
0.00
γ511.6591
0.00
γ6-1.2157
0.00
γ7-2.5496
0.00
γ8-3.0418
0.00
γ94.0197
0.00
γ100.5333
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days