V-Lab
Tsi Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
429.94
decreased by 26.77
1 Week
418.55
decreased by 38.16
1 Month
289.38
decreased by 167.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4303 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1970 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8030 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 13.0422 | |
| γ2 | -50.9707 | |
| γ3 | 69.3943 | |
| γ4 | -39.0929 | |
| γ5 | 11.9084 | |
| γ6 | -6.5859 | |
| γ7 | 3.2146 | |
| γ8 | -2.8798 | |
| γ9 | 0.7960 | |
| γ10 | 7.4092 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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