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V-Lab

Tsi Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

429.94

decreased by 26.77

1 Week

418.55

decreased by 38.16

1 Month

289.38

decreased by 167.33

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Tsi Co., Ltd. ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 30, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4303
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1970
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8030
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ113.0422
γ2-50.9707
γ369.3943
γ4-39.0929
γ511.9084
γ6-6.5859
γ73.2146
γ8-2.8798
γ90.7960
γ107.4092

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days