V-Lab
La Kaffa International Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
8,827.04
increased by 5,888.32
1 Week
4,307.89
increased by 1,369.17
1 Month
4,232.45
increased by 1,293.73
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.7776 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2793 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6726 | 12.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 1.3973 | 2.20** |
| γ2 | -1.4750 | -1.62 |
| γ3 | -0.0340 | -0.07 |
| γ4 | 0.7772 | 2.59*** |
| γ5 | -1.4980 | -6.06*** |
| γ6 | 1.8900 | 8.86*** |
| γ7 | -2.0236 | -6.98*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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