V-Lab
La Kaffa International Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
4,103.32
increased by 318.93
1 Week
3,839.76
increased by 55.37
1 Month
3,675.91
decreased by 108.48
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2207 trading days (~8.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 251% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0211 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9521 | 256.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0530 | 6.47*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2207 days
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