Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11,000.92
increased by 2,490.88
1 Week
8,685.25
increased by 175.21
1 Month
6,854.21
decreased by 1,655.83
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1315 | 7.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.1536 | 2.13** |
| βGARCH | 0.7016 | 5.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.5689 | -1.91* |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1315 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1536 | 2.13** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7016 | 5.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.5689 | -1.91* |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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