Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15,776.25
decreased by 2,846.60
1 Week
17,352.52
decreased by 1,270.33
1 Month
14,205.30
decreased by 4,417.55
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.08 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1515 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8250 | 47.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0470 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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