V-Lab
Dida Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
13,178.44
increased by 11,682.26
1 Week
3,969.96
increased by 2,473.78
1 Month
2,972.79
increased by 1,476.61
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7917 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2310 | 0.22 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7690 | 0.73 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.1840 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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