V-Lab
Dida Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
11,313.21
1 Week
3,373.17
1 Month
3,002.39
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1917 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8259 | 74.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0352 | -0.54 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0429 | 1.96* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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