V-Lab
Brass Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
2,647.86
decreased by 243.68
1 Week
3,097.97
increased by 206.43
1 Month
4,658.69
increased by 1,767.15
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6265 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2146 | 11.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7743 | 39.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1619 | -4.17*** |
| γ2 | 0.3286 | 4.74*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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