V-Lab
Brass Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,504.44
decreased by 29.68
1 Week
4,635.08
increased by 100.96
1 Month
5,578.55
increased by 1,044.43
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6185 | 4.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2140 | 11.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7750 | 40.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1669 | -4.21*** |
| γ2 | 0.3410 | 4.79*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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