V-Lab
Dawn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
1,018.67
decreased by 21.12
1 Week
1,088.86
increased by 49.07
1 Month
1,054.69
increased by 14.90
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1102 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9858 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2171 | 19.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7823 | 70.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0573 | -5.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.1198 | 7.40*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1102 days
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