Dawn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
786.72
decreased by 59.09
1 Week
838.31
decreased by 7.50
1 Month
1,328.53
increased by 482.72
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1125 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9847 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2175 | 19.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7819 | 69.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0579 | -5.69*** |
| γ2 | 0.1203 | 7.35*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1125 days
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