V-Lab
Dawn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
1,276.16
decreased by 262.28
1 Week
1,473.00
decreased by 65.44
1 Month
1,197.85
decreased by 340.59
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1074 trading days (~4.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9877 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2169 | 19.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7825 | 70.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0567 | -5.73*** |
| γ2 | 0.1191 | 7.46*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1074 days
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