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V-Lab

Dawn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

1,276.16

decreased by 262.28

1 Week

1,473.00

decreased by 65.44

1 Month

1,197.85

decreased by 340.59

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dawn Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1074 trading days (~4.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9877
5.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2169
19.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7825
70.32***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0567
-5.73***
γ20.1191
7.46***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1074 days