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V-Lab

Dawn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

1,018.67

decreased by 21.12

1 Week

1,088.86

increased by 49.07

1 Month

1,054.69

increased by 14.90

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dawn Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1102 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9858
5.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2171
19.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7823
70.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0573
-5.71***
γ20.1198
7.40***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1102 days