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V-Lab

Dawn Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

786.72

decreased by 59.09

1 Week

838.31

decreased by 7.50

1 Month

1,328.53

increased by 482.72

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dawn Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1125 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9847
5.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2175
19.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7819
69.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0579
-5.69***
γ20.1203
7.35***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1125 days