V-Lab
Dawn Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
716.94
1 Week
729.94
1 Month
770.49
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 91% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6658 | 11.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1281 | 23.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8137 | 327.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1166 | 14.92*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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