Dawn Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
563.99
1 Week
601.53
1 Month
1,036.27
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 91% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6661 | 11.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1285 | 23.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8131 | 325.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1169 | 14.89*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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