Dawn Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
559.41
1 Week
613.59
1 Month
1,165.97
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2479 | 15.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7771 | 338.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0595 | -2.00** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0394 | 12.38*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9988 | 2,541.38*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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