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Dawn Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

559.41

decreased by 62.54

1 Week

613.59

decreased by 8.36

1 Month

1,165.97

increased by 544.02

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Dawn Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2479
15.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7771
338.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0595
-2.00**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0394
12.38***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9988
2,541.38***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

146 days