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Dawn Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

1,053.17

increased by 56.37

1 Week

1,024.98

increased by 28.18

1 Month

884.60

decreased by 112.20

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dawn Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.2471
20.30***
βGARCH0.7778
85.09***
γleverage-0.0594
-4.93***
λ₁tau intercept0.0465
0.15
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9988
229.39***

0.995

Persistence

145d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2471
20.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7778
85.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0594
-4.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0465
0.15
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9988
229.39***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

145 days