V-Lab
Dawn Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,053.17
1 Week
1,024.98
1 Month
884.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.2471 | 20.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7778 | 85.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.0594 | -4.93*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0465 | 0.15 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9988 | 229.39*** |
0.995
Persistence145d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2471 | 20.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7778 | 85.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0594 | -4.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0465 | 0.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9988 | 229.39*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
145 days
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