ETHK Labs Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
120,408.10
decreased by 45,952.70
1 Week
185,040.08
increased by 18,679.28
1 Month
182,050.82
increased by 15,690.02
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4037 | 2.08** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2567 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7226 | 16.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 4.0381 | 1.57 |
| γ2 | -5.1620 | -1.37 |
| γ3 | 1.9473 | 0.74 |
| γ4 | -2.7712 | -1.03 |
| γ5 | 9.5408 | 3.26*** |
| γ6 | -18.3081 | -5.13*** |
| γ7 | 20.3069 | 4.35*** |
| γ8 | -33.9209 | -3.95*** |
| γ9 | 66.4246 | 5.32*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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