V-Lab
Manabi AID Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
13,764.96
decreased by 893.58
1 Week
14,796.84
increased by 138.30
1 Month
24,289.90
increased by 9,631.36
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2024 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2285 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2598 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3931 | 2.14** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -3.6134 | -1.29 |
| γ2 | -1.3006 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 13.8472 | 4.07*** |
| γ4 | -18.7071 | -4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.653
Half-life:
2 days
Other Manabi AID Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities