V-Lab
Manabi AID Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17,242.05
increased by 3,572.87
1 Week
13,720.86
increased by 51.68
1 Month
15,510.40
increased by 1,841.22
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2281 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2609 | 3.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4008 | 2.27** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -3.9280 | -1.45 |
| γ2 | -0.5450 | -0.13 |
| γ3 | 13.3248 | 3.98*** |
| γ4 | -20.2332 | -4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.662
Half-life:
2 days
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