V-Lab
Manabi AID Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
45,095.13
1 Week
46,168.20
1 Month
45,926.94
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 0.44 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9837 | 60.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0326 | -0.23 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1431 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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