V-Lab
Manabi AID Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16,841.00
1 Week
15,976.62
1 Month
24,824.68
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 75% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.26** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9096 | 138.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0493 | 4.67*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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