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Manabi AID Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16,841.00

increased by 1,483.08

1 Week

15,976.62

increased by 618.70

1 Month

24,824.68

increased by 9,466.76

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Manabi AID Co Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 28, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 75% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.26**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
6.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9096
138.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0493
4.67***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days