V-Lab
Hokkaidenko Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1,093.71
decreased by 58.25
1 Week
1,143.08
decreased by 8.88
1 Month
1,367.58
increased by 215.62
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2862 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 4.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 51.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3256 | -3.39*** |
| γ2 | 0.3293 | 2.71*** |
| γ3 | 0.1006 | 1.97** |
| γ4 | -0.2746 | -5.53*** |
| γ5 | 0.1634 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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