V-Lab
Hokkaidenko Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
1,347.98
decreased by 19.90
1 Week
1,397.98
increased by 30.10
1 Month
1,231.49
decreased by 136.39
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2862 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 4.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 51.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.3251 | -3.41*** |
| γ2 | 0.3304 | 2.74*** |
| γ3 | 0.0978 | 1.93* |
| γ4 | -0.2765 | -5.66*** |
| γ5 | 0.1790 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
Other Hokkaidenko Corporation Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities