V-Lab
Litu Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,509,435.00
decreased by 879,539.00
1 Week
5,949,204.50
decreased by 439,769.50
1 Month
5,870,878.40
decreased by 518,095.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8936 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2204 | 5.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7756 | 18.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -8.7608 | -3.66*** |
| γ2 | 15.0560 | 3.65*** |
| γ3 | -9.6736 | -4.00*** |
| γ4 | 4.8261 | 5.18*** |
| γ5 | -1.4112 | -1.72* |
| γ6 | -1.0493 | -1.24 |
| γ7 | 2.4250 | 3.02*** |
| γ8 | -2.9444 | -2.63*** |
| γ9 | 3.1511 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
173 days
Other Litu Holdings Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities