V-Lab
Litu Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8,058,198.00
increased by 215,758.00
1 Week
7,950,319.00
increased by 107,879.00
1 Month
6,670,523.27
decreased by 1,171,916.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 382 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5419 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2271 | 5.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7711 | 19.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -12.6550 | -3.89*** |
| γ2 | 20.5428 | 3.80*** |
| γ3 | -11.0534 | -3.31*** |
| γ4 | 3.7120 | 1.59 |
| γ5 | -0.4303 | -0.19 |
| γ6 | 0.5257 | 0.31 |
| γ7 | -2.5460 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 4.5944 | 4.46*** |
| γ9 | -5.5771 | -6.95*** |
| γ10 | 6.0192 | 3.50*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
382 days
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