V-Lab
Litu Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,055,028.00
increased by 496,503.00
1 Week
3,981,292.67
increased by 422,767.67
1 Month
8,748,126.60
increased by 5,189,601.60
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8905 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2200 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7764 | 19.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -8.9911 | -3.70*** |
| γ2 | 15.4154 | 3.69*** |
| γ3 | -9.8458 | -4.04*** |
| γ4 | 4.8638 | 5.15*** |
| γ5 | -1.4131 | -1.65* |
| γ6 | -1.0028 | -1.15 |
| γ7 | 2.3160 | 2.64*** |
| γ8 | -2.7471 | -2.23** |
| γ9 | 2.7050 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
195 days
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