V-Lab
Litu Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,901,090.00
1 Week
4,840,941.00
1 Month
4,532,875.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0237 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9652 | 388.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0223 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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