V-Lab
Litu Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,980,329.00
1 Week
4,835,241.33
1 Month
11,651,048.60
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3157 | 26.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7812 | 177.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1994 | -11.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10,721,000.0000 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
247 days
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