V-Lab
NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.01
decreased by 0.12
1 Week
1.06
decreased by 0.07
1 Month
1.18
increased by 0.05
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2484 trading days (~9.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2484 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8876 | 6.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1661 | 5.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8336 | 25.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2429 | 0.56 |
| γ2 | -0.6459 | -1.03 |
| γ3 | 0.6018 | 1.98** |
| γ4 | -1.3466 | -1.44 |
| γ5 | 3.7089 | 1.39 |
| γ6 | -4.8865 | -1.45 |
| γ7 | 3.7051 | 1.49 |
| γ8 | -1.9189 | -1.50 |
| γ9 | 0.5999 | 1.51 |
| γ10 | -0.1751 | -1.01 |
1.000
Persistence2484d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8876 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1661 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8336 | 25.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2429 | 0.56 |
| γ2 | -0.6459 | -1.03 |
| γ3 | 0.6018 | 1.98** |
| γ4 | -1.3466 | -1.44 |
| γ5 | 3.7089 | 1.39 |
| γ6 | -4.8865 | -1.45 |
| γ7 | 3.7051 | 1.49 |
| γ8 | -1.9189 | -1.50 |
| γ9 | 0.5999 | 1.51 |
| γ10 | -0.1751 | -1.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2484 days
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