V-Lab
NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1.69
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
1.66
decreased by 0.03
1 Month
1.51
decreased by 0.18
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7146 trading days (~28.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8449 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1662 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8337 | 4.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2642 | 0.30 |
| γ2 | -0.6296 | -0.55 |
| γ3 | 0.1856 | 0.24 |
| γ4 | -0.4400 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | 3.0166 | 0.65 |
| γ6 | -4.7533 | -0.80 |
| γ7 | 3.6989 | 0.84 |
| γ8 | -1.8613 | -0.80 |
| γ9 | 0.5783 | 0.74 |
| γ10 | -0.1679 | -0.74 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7146 days
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