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NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

1.01

decreased by 0.12

1 Week

1.06

decreased by 0.07

1 Month

1.18

increased by 0.05

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2484 trading days (~9.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2484 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8876
6.24***
αARCH0.1661
5.04***
βGARCH0.8336
25.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2429
0.56
γ2-0.6459
-1.03
γ30.6018
1.98**
γ4-1.3466
-1.44
γ53.7089
1.39
γ6-4.8865
-1.45
γ73.7051
1.49
γ8-1.9189
-1.50
γ90.5999
1.51
γ10-0.1751
-1.01

1.000

Persistence

2484d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8876
6.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1661
5.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8336
25.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2429
0.56
γ2-0.6459
-1.03
γ30.6018
1.98**
γ4-1.3466
-1.44
γ53.7089
1.39
γ6-4.8865
-1.45
γ73.7051
1.49
γ8-1.9189
-1.50
γ90.5999
1.51
γ10-0.1751
-1.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2484 days