V-Lab
NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2.03
increased by 0.03
1 Week
1.99
decreased by 0.01
1 Month
1.75
decreased by 0.25
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 48% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0588 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1516 | 8.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8032 | 37.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0723 | 5.11*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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