V-Lab
NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
1.19
1 Week
1.44
1 Month
1.41
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1297 | 0.36 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7373 | 18.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1300 | 0.19 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1153 | 0.55 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7480 | 0.83 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2520 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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