V-Lab
NH Investment & Securities Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.14
1 Week
1.20
1 Month
1.24
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1295 | 8.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7371 | 10.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.1307 | 1.61 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1162 | 1.58 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7544 | 4.04*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2456 | 1.58 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1295 | 8.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7371 | 10.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1307 | 1.61 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1162 | 1.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7544 | 4.04*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2456 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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