V-Lab
Daewon Sanup Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
191.44
decreased by 17.94
1 Week
179.60
decreased by 29.78
1 Month
153.24
decreased by 56.14
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 01:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8826 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1384 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4446 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.7699 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.5884 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
Other Daewon Sanup Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities