Daewon Sanup Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
194.55
increased by 3.31
1 Week
178.66
decreased by 12.58
1 Month
135.72
decreased by 55.52
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8140 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1389 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8611 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4794 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.8413 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.6475 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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