V-Lab
Daewon Sanup Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
205.88
decreased by 18.85
1 Week
194.20
decreased by 30.53
1 Month
167.95
decreased by 56.78
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 01:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1563 | 1.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 3.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 33.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0052 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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