Jinneng Holding Shanxi Electric Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
86.72
decreased by 14.26
1 Week
102.41
increased by 1.43
1 Month
87.34
decreased by 13.64
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 1997 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 60 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5805 | 3.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.1823 | 17.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8063 | 71.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0231 | -2.90*** |
| γ2 | 0.0410 | 3.08*** |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5805 | 3.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1823 | 17.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 71.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0231 | -2.90*** |
| γ2 | 0.0410 | 3.08*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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