V-Lab
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Electric Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
54.46
increased by 15.33
1 Week
43.23
increased by 4.10
1 Month
47.35
increased by 8.22
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 20386 trading days (~80.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~20386 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2751 | 0.24 |
| αARCH | 0.2175 | 0.24 |
| βGARCH | 0.7825 | 0.88 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5210 | -5.10*** |
| γ2 | 1.3026 | 11.30*** |
| γ3 | -1.5373 | -16.30*** |
| γ4 | 1.1414 | 6.39*** |
| γ5 | -0.5526 | -7.85*** |
| γ6 | 0.2863 | 0.74 |
1.000
Persistence20386d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2751 | 0.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2175 | 0.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7825 | 0.88 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5210 | -5.10*** |
| γ2 | 1.3026 | 11.30*** |
| γ3 | -1.5373 | -16.30*** |
| γ4 | 1.1414 | 6.39*** |
| γ5 | -0.5526 | -7.85*** |
| γ6 | 0.2863 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
20386 days
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