V-Lab
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Electric Power Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
43.85
increased by 15.14
1 Week
30.33
increased by 1.62
1 Month
49.57
increased by 20.86
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21661 trading days (~86.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2755 | 0.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2179 | 0.21 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7821 | 0.77 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5404 | -5.53*** |
| γ2 | 1.3457 | 12.61*** |
| γ3 | -1.5747 | -18.18*** |
| γ4 | 1.1592 | 5.99*** |
| γ5 | -0.5612 | -7.75*** |
| γ6 | 0.2973 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
21661 days
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