Jinneng Holding Shanxi Electric Power Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
96.71
decreased by 4.23
1 Week
87.78
decreased by 13.16
1 Month
76.59
decreased by 24.35
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 362% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 362% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4865 | 0.96 |
| αARCH | 0.0311 | 1.64 |
| βGARCH | 0.9040 | 51.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.1125 | 6.85*** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4865 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 1.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9040 | 51.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1125 | 6.85*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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