V-Lab
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Electric Power Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
61.24
1 Week
58.02
1 Month
59.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 844 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2259 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7705 | 197.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0057 | 0.08 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9993 | 1,247.57*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
844 days
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