Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
129.14
decreased by 9.85
1 Week
102.45
decreased by 36.54
1 Month
96.64
decreased by 42.35
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 821 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~821 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0273 | 4.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.3319 | 21.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6673 | 44.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0415 | -3.15*** |
| γ2 | 0.0646 | 3.18*** |
0.999
Persistence821d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0273 | 4.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3319 | 21.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6673 | 44.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0415 | -3.15*** |
| γ2 | 0.0646 | 3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
821 days
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