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Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

129.14

decreased by 9.85

1 Week

102.45

decreased by 36.54

1 Month

96.64

decreased by 42.35

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 22, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 821 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~821 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0273
4.79***
αARCH0.3319
21.99***
βGARCH0.6673
44.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0415
-3.15***
γ20.0646
3.18***

0.999

Persistence

821d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0273
4.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3319
21.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6673
44.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0415
-3.15***
γ20.0646
3.18***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

821 days