V-Lab
Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
135.04
increased by 17.87
1 Week
143.29
increased by 26.12
1 Month
185.02
increased by 67.85
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1557 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2592 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7408 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.9870 | -0.15 |
| γ2 | 3.5142 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -4.2093 | -0.62 |
| γ4 | 0.4084 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 3.5085 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -3.3728 | -0.04 |
| γ7 | 2.2308 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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