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Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

135.04

increased by 17.87

1 Week

143.29

increased by 26.12

1 Month

185.02

increased by 67.85

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 22, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1557
0.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2592
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7408
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.9870
-0.15
γ23.5142
0.01
γ3-4.2093
-0.62
γ40.4084
0.00
γ53.5085
0.00
γ6-3.3728
-0.04
γ72.2308
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days