V-Lab
Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
79.85
decreased by 8.27
1 Week
82.93
decreased by 5.19
1 Month
79.60
decreased by 8.52
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1936 trading days (~7.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9014 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2771 | 18.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7226 | 48.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.2264 | -3.19*** |
| γ2 | 4.0211 | 4.99*** |
| γ3 | -4.5421 | -6.42*** |
| γ4 | 1.3133 | 4.46*** |
| γ5 | 1.4007 | 3.91*** |
| γ6 | -1.2961 | -3.99*** |
| γ7 | 0.2581 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1936 days
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