V-Lab
Hunan Energy Group Development Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
92.47
1 Week
96.89
1 Month
92.67
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 22, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4026 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6932 | 28.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2015 | -2.47** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9828 | 54.94*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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