V-Lab
Changhong Meiling Company Co., Ltd. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
347.73
increased by 61.74
1 Week
278.64
decreased by 7.35
1 Month
276.09
decreased by 9.90
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 18, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1754 trading days (~7.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9366 | 4.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2161 | 21.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7835 | 79.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1258 | -3.03*** |
| γ2 | 0.4014 | 5.97*** |
| γ3 | -0.6279 | -12.35*** |
| γ4 | 0.5908 | 12.34*** |
| γ5 | -0.3637 | -6.56*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1754 days
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