V-Lab
Elsaeed Contracting & Real Estate Investment Co SCCD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
75.25%
decreased by 11.88%
1 Week
75.17%
decreased by 11.96%
1 Month
74.88%
decreased by 12.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1998 to Jul 22, 2026Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1887 | 37.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 427.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7106 | 84.41*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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