V-Lab
Elsaeed Contracting & Real Estate Investment Co SCCD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
58.74%
decreased by 7.31%
1 Week
55.57%
decreased by 10.48%
1 Month
50.09%
decreased by 15.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1998 to Jul 22, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5380 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1321 | 6.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7076 | 12.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9657 | -4.39*** |
| γ2 | 1.6391 | 4.67*** |
| γ3 | -1.1639 | -3.80*** |
| γ4 | 0.6903 | 2.91*** |
| γ5 | -0.1946 | -1.31 |
| γ6 | -0.0990 | -1.05 |
| γ7 | 0.2895 | 4.12*** |
| γ8 | -0.3952 | -5.51*** |
| γ9 | 0.3511 | 4.46*** |
| γ10 | -0.2158 | -3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
Other Elsaeed Contracting & Real Estate Investment Co SCCD Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities