V-Lab
ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
59.60%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
59.39%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
58.60%
decreased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.9054 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0466 | 14.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9880 | 450.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.0779 | 1.84* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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