V-Lab
ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
64.08%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
63.80%
decreased by 3.00%
1 Month
63.02%
decreased by 3.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 265% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 4.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7505 | 42.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0940 | 9.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.7401 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6654 | 0.41 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1721 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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