V-Lab
ReposiTrak Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
75.31%
increased by 9.55%
1 Week
76.27%
increased by 10.51%
1 Month
79.82%
increased by 14.06%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 65.0088 | 11.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0990 | 113.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 1,686.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7905 | 213.51*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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