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V-Lab

ReposiTrak Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

75.31%

increased by 9.55%

1 Week

76.27%

increased by 10.51%

1 Month

79.82%

increased by 14.06%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ReposiTrak Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

65.0088
11.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0990
113.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9932
1,686.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7905
213.51***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days