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V-Lab

ReposiTrak Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

49.58%

increased by 1.51%

1 Week

50.10%

increased by 2.03%

1 Month

52.11%

increased by 4.04%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ReposiTrak Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 388 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 84% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1206
9.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0436
12.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9363
398.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0367
5.94***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

388 days