V-Lab
ReposiTrak Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
49.58%
increased by 1.51%
1 Week
50.10%
increased by 2.03%
1 Month
52.11%
increased by 4.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 388 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 84% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1206 | 9.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0436 | 12.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9363 | 398.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0367 | 5.94*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
388 days
Other ReposiTrak Inc Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equities