V-Lab
ReposiTrak Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
49.80%
increased by 4.33%
1 Week
50.07%
increased by 4.60%
1 Month
51.26%
increased by 5.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1046 | 21.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7917 | 76.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0473 | 6.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0445 | 6.65*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0197 | 7.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9775 | 336.04*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
Other ReposiTrak Inc Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities