V-Lab
Tate & Lyle Plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.97%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
30.50%
increased by 3.52%
1 Month
35.03%
increased by 8.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2003 | 14.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5998 | 36.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0168 | 0.76 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0452 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0130 | 1.59 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9767 | 66.29*** |
Persistence:
0.809
Half-life:
3 days
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