Tate & Lyle Plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.20%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
30.67%
increased by 3.38%
1 Month
35.18%
increased by 7.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2012 | 14.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5950 | 35.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0156 | 0.71 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0456 | 1.43 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0142 | 1.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9755 | 64.34*** |
Persistence:
0.804
Half-life:
3 days
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