V-Lab
Tate & Lyle Plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.29%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
29.66%
increased by 3.35%
1 Month
33.85%
increased by 7.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1962 | 13.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6074 | 36.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0148 | 0.66 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8515 | 0.17 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3304 | 0.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.811
Half-life:
3 days
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