V-Lab
Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
26.18%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
27.52%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
29.67%
increased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 3.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8418 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.1341 | 2.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8517 | 14.50*** |
| νDF | 3.9457 | 1.44 |
0.852
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8418 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1341 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8517 | 14.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9457 | 1.44 |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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