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Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

26.18%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Week

27.52%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

29.67%

increased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 2010 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 3.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.8418
2.49**
αARCH0.1341
2.86***
βGARCH0.8517
14.50***
νDF3.9457
1.44

0.852

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.8418
2.49**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1341
2.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8517
14.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9457
1.44

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days