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Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

27.78%

increased by 1.80%

1 Week

28.58%

increased by 2.60%

1 Month

29.95%

increased by 3.97%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 4.43 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run3.8650
2.86***
αscore0.1327
3.08***
βpersistence0.8616
17.81***
νDF4.4300
1.26

0.862

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

3.8650
2.86***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1327
3.08***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8616
17.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4300
1.26

Persistence:

0.862

Half-life:

5 days