Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
27.78%
increased by 1.80%
1 Week
28.58%
increased by 2.60%
1 Month
29.95%
increased by 3.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 4.43 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.8650 | 2.86*** |
| αscore | 0.1327 | 3.08*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8616 | 17.81*** |
| νDF | 4.4300 | 1.26 |
0.862
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.8650 | 2.86*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1327 | 3.08*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 17.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4300 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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