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Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

24.19%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

26.19%

increased by 2.01%

1 Month

29.23%

increased by 5.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tate & Lyle Plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.8607
9.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1349
11.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8490
56.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9304
5.74***

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days