V-Lab
Tate & Lyle Plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.20%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
38.41%
increased by 4.21%
1 Month
41.92%
increased by 7.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9108 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2002 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5095 | 6.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2539 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.6138 | 1.87* |
| γ3 | -0.5896 | -2.04** |
| γ4 | 0.0990 | 0.33 |
| γ5 | 0.3197 | 1.31 |
| γ6 | -0.2378 | -1.02 |
| γ7 | 0.1365 | 0.51 |
| γ8 | -0.3696 | -1.10 |
| γ9 | 0.7034 | 2.07** |
| γ10 | -0.6425 | -2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.710
Half-life:
2 days
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