V-Lab
Tate & Lyle Plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
32.60%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
36.57%
increased by 3.97%
1 Month
39.91%
increased by 7.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9122 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2002 | 5.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5123 | 6.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2538 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.6136 | 1.87* |
| γ3 | -0.5899 | -2.04** |
| γ4 | 0.1000 | 0.33 |
| γ5 | 0.3183 | 1.30 |
| γ6 | -0.2358 | -1.01 |
| γ7 | 0.1325 | 0.49 |
| γ8 | -0.3606 | -1.07 |
| γ9 | 0.6846 | 2.02** |
| γ10 | -0.6186 | -2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.713
Half-life:
2 days
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