Tate & Lyle Plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.35%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
38.51%
increased by 4.08%
1 Month
41.94%
increased by 7.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9080 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1992 | 5.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5068 | 6.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2574 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 0.6193 | 1.88* |
| γ3 | -0.5895 | -2.02** |
| γ4 | 0.0933 | 0.31 |
| γ5 | 0.3241 | 1.32 |
| γ6 | -0.2403 | -1.03 |
| γ7 | 0.1478 | 0.54 |
| γ8 | -0.3974 | -1.17 |
| γ9 | 0.7442 | 2.19** |
| γ10 | -0.6766 | -3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.706
Half-life:
2 days
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