V-Lab
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
19.54%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
20.22%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
22.19%
increased by 1.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1991 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4413 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1056 | 7.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8529 | 50.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0317 | -1.41 |
| γ2 | 0.0655 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -0.0569 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 0.0364 | 2.33** |
| γ5 | -0.0164 | -1.49 |
0.959
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4413 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8529 | 50.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0317 | -1.41 |
| γ2 | 0.0655 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -0.0569 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 0.0364 | 2.33** |
| γ5 | -0.0164 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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