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V-Lab
V-Lab

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

19.54%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

20.22%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

22.19%

increased by 1.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1991 to Sep 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4413
3.79***
αARCH0.1056
7.80***
βGARCH0.8529
50.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0317
-1.41
γ20.0655
1.89*
γ3-0.0569
-2.57**
γ40.0364
2.33**
γ5-0.0164
-1.49

0.959

Persistence

16d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4413
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1056
7.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8529
50.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0317
-1.41
γ20.0655
1.89*
γ3-0.0569
-2.57**
γ40.0364
2.33**
γ5-0.0164
-1.49

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

16 days