V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
59.31%
increased by 0.98%
1 Week
58.71%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
56.59%
decreased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0284 | 19.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1699 | 33.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9853 | 1,403.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0321 | -7.39*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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