V-Lab
Sonali Life Insurance Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
25.95%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
27.13%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
30.77%
increased by 4.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2021 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 3.75 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.4358 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0659 | 6.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9732 | 49.85*** |
| νDF | 3.7462 | 2.08** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.4358 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0659 | 6.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9732 | 49.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7462 | 2.08** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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