V-Lab
Sonali Life Insurance Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
27.47%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
29.16%
increased by 1.65%
1 Month
33.31%
increased by 5.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2021 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7963 | 6.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0912 | 4.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8464 | 30.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0106 | -1.29 |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7963 | 6.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8464 | 30.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0106 | -1.29 |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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