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V-Lab

Sonali Life Insurance Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026

1 Day

27.47%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

29.16%

increased by 1.65%

1 Month

33.31%

increased by 5.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sonali Life Insurance Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 2021 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7963
6.75***
αARCH0.0912
4.16***
βGARCH0.8464
30.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0106
-1.29

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7963
6.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0912
4.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8464
30.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0106
-1.29

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days