SEI Select Small CAP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.54%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
16.46%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
16.69%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8644 | 33.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.1068 | 4.42*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0599 | 1.21 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0584 | 2.11** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8944 | 16.81*** |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8644 | 33.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1068 | 4.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0599 | 1.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0584 | 2.11** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8944 | 16.81*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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