SEI Select Small CAP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.46%
increased by 2.12%
1 Week
24.91%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
21.74%
decreased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2024 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2012 | 4.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0632 | 1.22 |
| βGARCH | 0.8056 | 6.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1125 | 1.26 |
0.869
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2012 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 1.22 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8056 | 6.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1125 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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