V-Lab
SEI Select Small CAP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
15.90%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
16.40%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
17.37%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2294 | 4.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0606 | 1.17 |
| βGARCH | 0.8272 | 7.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1471 | 1.48 |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2294 | 4.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0606 | 1.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8272 | 7.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1471 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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