SEI Select Small CAP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
18.01%
increased by 0.49%
1 Week
18.41%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
19.12%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1455 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0624 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8001 | 6.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1227 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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