V-Lab
Ponce Financial Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.53%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
21.66%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
23.43%
increased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4339 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.1481 | 4.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7020 | 11.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.9296 | -1.39 |
| γ2 | 2.1791 | 2.21** |
| γ3 | -2.7087 | -2.89*** |
| γ4 | 2.1535 | 1.53 |
| γ5 | -0.8712 | -0.58 |
| γ6 | 0.0776 | 0.08 |
| γ7 | 0.2392 | 0.49 |
0.850
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4339 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1481 | 4.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7020 | 11.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.9296 | -1.39 |
| γ2 | 2.1791 | 2.21** |
| γ3 | -2.7087 | -2.89*** |
| γ4 | 2.1535 | 1.53 |
| γ5 | -0.8712 | -0.58 |
| γ6 | 0.0776 | 0.08 |
| γ7 | 0.2392 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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