Ponce Financial Group Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
18.24%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
19.87%
increased by 2.01%
1 Month
24.62%
increased by 6.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1574 | 3.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.2936 | 5.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6888 | 22.58*** |
| γleverage | -0.0128 | -0.16 |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1574 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2936 | 5.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6888 | 22.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0128 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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