V-Lab
Ponce Financial Group Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.72%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
25.44%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
29.46%
increased by 4.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3359 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.1064 | 3.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7713 | 18.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.1057 | 1.26 |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3359 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1064 | 3.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7713 | 18.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1057 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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