Ponce Financial Group Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.42%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
22.74%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
27.92%
increased by 7.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3250 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.1078 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7730 | 18.57*** |
| γleverage | 0.1028 | 1.23 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3250 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1078 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7730 | 18.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1028 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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